N.H. exports drop 13.3 percent in October

$297.1 million in goods were shipped from the Granite State -- $45.7 million less than the month before

Exports from New Hampshire plunged 13.3 percent in October 2013 from the previous month, following an increase of 3.5 percent in September.

In October, $297.1 million worth of goods were shipped from New Hampshire to foreign markets — $45.7 million less than the value of exports recorded in September.

Manufactured goods led foreign sales, accounting for 71 percent of all state exports. Shipments abroad from New Hampshire's manufacturers fell in October by 14.1 percent from the previous month, to $209.4 million.

On an annual basis, overseas sales from state factories were 9.6 percent lower than in October of last year.

Exports of non-manufactured goods fell 11.3 percent in October, to $87.7 million.

Through the first 10 months of 2013, total U.S. have increased by an annual rate of 1.5 percent from the first 10 months of 2012 year. This compares with a 4.6 percent increase in 2012 and a surge of 17.4 percent in 2011 during the same 10-month period.

During the January-October period, exports of goods from New Hampshire increased by an annual rate of 18.7 percent from the same period of 2012. Consequently, New Hampshire ranked first in export growth among the 50 states during the first 10 months of 2013.

What is the outlook for global economic growth in 2014?

In its end-of-the-year global economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts global economic activity "to strengthen gradually in 2014 and 2015, but the recovery is likely to remain modest."

OECD's report also points out that "near-term prospects appear a little weaker than had been expected” when its previous report was issued last May, amid a further slowdown in the growth of large emerging economies like China, India, Brazil and Russia — which are tempering the speed of economic recovery in the industrial countries.

The Paris-based economic think tank of the 30 richest countries in the world predicts economic activity for its members to increase 2.3 percent in 2014, compared with an average 3.6 percent worldwide economic growth.

Most important, OECD predicts world trade to moderately improve in 2014. Following an increase of 3 percent in 2013, the volume of world trade is forecast to expand by 4.8 percent in 2014.

The projections on global growth and international trade suggest modest improvements in export orders for New Hampshire companies in 2014. The small acceleration in the growth of foreign demand will not provide a strong boost to production activity at the state level and, as a result, will not generate significant gains in export-related jobs in 2014.

Evangelos Simos, chief economist of the consulting and research firm e−forecasting.com, is editor for International Affairs for the Journal of Business Forecasting and professor of economics at the Paul College of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire. He can be reached at eosimos@e-forecasting.com.

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