Cook on Concord: Filing period is over

Let the political races and quandaries begin

Now that the filing period for political office is over, things have become a little clearer. Who is running and who is not, and choices facing the voters have become focused.

As to candidates, those not running include the retirement of senior Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, opening up that office to candidates from both parties. In the Legislature, Speaker Sherman Packard has announced he will seek reelection as a legislator but not pursue the speaker role. Who will fill that office will depend on the results of the election for the 400 members. A few retirements in the state Senate create open seats. The candidacy of 1st District Congressman Chris Pappas for the Shaheen seat has opened that office.

Those filing for the offices present the voters with choices. For the U.S. Senate, Pappas has four contestants, but is presumed to be the candidate. On the GOP side, two former senators, John E. Sununu, who represented New Hampshire in the Senate, and Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts but then got religion and moved to the Granite State, are joined by six other aspirants, basically unknown to the voters. Sununu has been endorsed by President Trump and is expected to be the front-runner.

In the 1st District, Democrats can choose between nine candidates of whom Stephanie Shaheen has the most name recognition and, assumedly, will have the most money behind her candidacy. GOP candidates are relatively unknown, although Hollie Noveletsky has run before, and Brian Cole has been getting materials and social media out.

In the 2nd District, Maggie Goodlander, with perhaps the best resume in Congress, faces an unknown opponent and should be in good shape in the primary. GOP candidates are generally unknown and unfunded, but include Lilly Tang Williams, an immigrant who has tried several times before.

For governor, incumbent Kelly Ayotte is the favorite to beat two opponents in the primary, but Republicans should remember that then-U.S. Sen. Ayotte was weakened and then defeated when those way to her right opposed her reelection and then made third-party bids, allowing Maggie Hassan’s tight election in 2016.

Democrat Cinde Warmington is unopposed, but faces the historic issue that first-term governors of New Hampshire have always been elected again, with the exception of Craig Benson, since 1950.

On the Executive Council, incumbent Democrat Karen Hill is running unopposed in District 2, the Democratic district, and former candidates Jim O’Connell is running in District 4 and former Sen. Melanie Levesque is running against David Wheeler in District 5. The Republican incumbents all are running, with Kenney and Wheeler unopposed, and Stephen and Stephens facing unknown opponents. Look for a repeat election for the Council after the primary, and the Republican majority to continue unless there is a huge Democratic wave election, given the configuration of the districts.

In the NH Senate, Democrats have two of the 24 districts with contested primary races. For the GOP, there are only two contested primaries, in Districts 16 and 17. In the Senate, district configurations favor Republicans.

For the 400 House members, it is too complex to predict. About 20% to 30% of the House turns over every two years, and several prominent retirements will change leadership, but this is where a wave election could most influence the outcome, and the House could turn Democrat.

That is the waterfront of this election. It will be interesting to see which of the relatively unknown candidates for major office can break out of the field and become serious contestants, and how they will get their messages across. Recognizing that New Hampshire will continue to have a September primary, at least for this last time, it will be instructive also to see how primary winners will be able to become known to the voters in the short time until November.

The strategic choices presented to voters are at least as interesting as the personalities on the ballot. Consider some of them:

If you are a Trump voter, and think either Gov. Ayotte or former Sen. Sununu is too soft on Trump, will you vote for them or for an opponent, more “purely” in support for Trump, or will you vote for the candidate more likely to continue GOP control?

If you are a disenchanted moderate Republican or independent who believes that Sununu is the best qualified candidate for the U.S. Senate but does not think Trump should have GOP majorities in the Senate or House, will you vote for Pappas for the Senate to put the brakes on the president, or vote for the candidate you ordinarily would vote for?

Will GOP voters who have unknowingly voted for “Free State” candidates who advocated for extreme policies such as social or education measures they never would support figure out who they are and dispatch them in primaries or oppose them in the general election? Will Democrats be successful in finding winning opponents for these people? Will reaction to Trump’s policies, war and actions and the economic situation cause a wave election, or is that all media hype?

It should be an interesting summer and fall.

Stay tuned, pay attention and vote!

Brad Cook is a Manchester attorney. The views expressed in this column are his own. He can be reached at bradfordcook01@gmail.com.