Lower interest rates pushed by White House likely won’t help NH home prices

The issue here in New Hampshire remains as it has been for many months: lack of supply that forces the hand of higher prices

President Donald Trump is hell bent on getting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

He has expressed his expectation that Kevin Warsh, his pick to become the new Fed chairman, will more rapidly lower rates than the cautious, inflation-wary current chair, Jerome Powell.

But even if that comes to pass once Warsh takes the job in May, don’t expect New Hampshire home prices to suddenly get more affordable, according to Joshua Greenwald, president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR).

Lower interest rates might spur current homeowners who have been sitting on the sidelines to put their properties up for sale, thus adding to the supply pool. But, there’s a but, said Greenwald.

“Lower mortgage rates would definitely help some buyers get back into the game. They might also nudge homeowners with those golden 3% to 4% mortgages to finally sell,” said Greenwald.

“But here’s the catch: most of those sellers turn right around and become buyers again — often chasing the same small pool of homes,” he added. “Anyone who’s been to an open house lately knows what that looks like: packed rooms, multiple offers and prices climbing fast.”

The current Fed rate stands at between 3.5%–3.75%. Trump has said he wants to see it get down to 1% or lower this year, which he believes will boost economic growth by lowering certain commercial interest rates, including those for home mortgages.

The issue here in New Hampshire remains as it has been for many months: lack of supply that forces the hand of higher prices.

It’s a statewide frustration reflected in a new poll made public by Housing Action New Hampshire that shows 87% of New Hampshire voters want the state to take action to address the cost and availability of homes.

And a new report from the NH Department of Business and Economic Affairs (BEA) says the state is currently 29% of the way to its stated goal of needing 88,364 new housing units by 2040.

The latest data from NHAR shows the median price of a single-family home in New Hampshire is $540,000, the highest it’s been since August 2025 when it was $551,000. It rose from $520,000 in December.

That is a bit unusual, said Greenwald, given that historically prices tend to flatten out during the cold, snowy winter months, then start to rise with the spring thaw. But it shows demand is still high on a shallow pool of supply, putting pressure on pricing.

In Greenwald’s estimation, lower mortgage interest rates (which hovers on average between 5.9% and 6.2% in the state) from a lower Fed rate isn’t going to make much difference.

“We’ve seen this movie before. Even when rates were in the 3% range a few years ago, prices exploded and affordability actually got worse. Lower rates bring more buyers, more competition and, often, higher prices that cancel out the savings on the mortgage,” said Greenwald, owner broker of Greenwald Realty Group in Keene. “The real issue in New Hampshire isn’t interest rates; it’s inventory. We simply don’t have enough homes.”

Warsh, Trump’s pick for the new Fed chair, is a former Federal Reserve governor. His nomination will require confirmation by the U.S. Senate. He has advocated for lowering interest rates at a faster pace.

The BEA newest report on housing supply says that in 2024, New Hampshire’s cities and towns issued building permits for the construction of 5,822 housing units, the highest annual number since 2006.

A spreadsheet that accompanies the report shows the following:

The total number of housing units in the state as of 2020 was 646,888. That number grew by 2.7% to 664,167 by 2025. But the growth from 2024 to 2025 of housing units was less than 1%, from 658,345 to 664,167, 0.9%.

According to the BEA, residential multi-unit buildings represented 62% of all units added in 2025, the highest percentage recorded since the housing survey was initiated over 50 years ago. Single-family housing represented 35.6% of the total and manufactured housing represented the remaining 2.4%.

The BEA said the number of single-family units permitted statewide has declined every year since 2020.

Gov. Kelly Ayotte, in her mid-term State of the State address on Feb. 5, lauded the BEA stat on housing production over the 20-year period.

“This is an early sign that momentum continues to build, and we are increasing our much-needed housing supply. I know there’s an appetite to do even more, and we will keep thinking creatively to keep New Hampshire growing,” she said.

She called 2025 “the most ambitious year for new housing laws in state history,” citing, as examples, laws that allow detached accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and the conversion of commercial real estate space into residential housing.

The survey released by Housing Action NH was done by YouGov, which assessed voter views toward the current state of the housing market and measured their support for new policies that would expand housing availability and affordability in the state.

“Once again, New Hampshire voters say overwhelmingly that the cost of buying or renting a home in this state is a problem,” said Nick Taylor, executive director of Housing Action NH. “This year, we also found that 76% of New Hampshire voters are experiencing this issue in deeply personal ways — it’s stopping them from being able to afford their basic needs, or to start a family, or to save for retirement. The Legislature must urgently address this issue, and work to pass bold solutions to our housing supply challenges.”

Some of the survey’s findings are as follows:

• 52% of New Hampshire voters believe that the cost of housing is one of the top issues facing their state.
• There is bipartisan voter support for housing reforms that would allow more homes to be built in New Hampshire, including allowing manufactured homes, making it easier to build more housing, and additional funding in the state budget for affordable housing developments.
• It is more important to build more homes than it is to preserve neighborhood character.
• Voters expressed a preference for candidates who vote to allow more homes to be built across the state and who work with members of the opposite party on passing policies that expand housing availability and affordability.

When it comes to affordability, the NHAR trends report for January shows an affordability index of 59, meaning a household with a median income here has only 59% of the money it needs to afford a single-family home in the state. The affordability index for a residential townhouse/condominium was better at 78.

The last time the affordability index was 100 was back in early 2022.

Here, by county, are the single-family home prices as reported by the NHAR for January:

• Belknap $475,000
• Carroll $537,015
• Cheshire $399,000
• Coos $224,000
• Grafton $435,000
• Hillsborough $540,459
• Merrimack $485,000
• Rockingham $650,000
• Strafford $517,500
• Sullivan $372,500

Here are the condo prices for January:

• Belknap $510,000
• Carroll $440,000
• Cheshire $335,499
• Coos $435,000
• Grafton $424,500
• Hillsborough $373,000
• Merrimack $290,000
• Rockingham $548,750
• Strafford $465,000
• Sullivan $265,000

The recorded statewide median price of a condo was $410,000, 3.8% less than it was in January 2025, while the $540,000 median price of a house was 7.5% more than a year ago.

The January median price increase is punctuated — with an exclamation point — by the Seacoast Board of Realtors revelation that, for the first time ever, the median price of a single-family home in that region surpassed the $1 million threshold.

The Seacoast board uses Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, Hampton Falls, New Castle, Newfields, Newington, North Hampton, Newmarket, Portsmouth, Rye, Seabrook and Stratham as its sample communities for data collection.

The median price of a single-family home in January reached $1,087,500, up 25.5% from last year.

New Hampshire Housing has scheduled its 2026 Homeownership Conference for March 18 at the Grappone Conference Center in Concord.

The conference will feature discussion on housing policy, the future of housing in the state, housing affordability and property taxes.