If nothing changes between now and then, the trust fund that finances Social Security payments will run out, triggering a 7% decline in monthly payments in 2032 and dwindling further to 28% from 2033 through 2036.
That forecast is a symptom of this country’s debt crisis, a long-lingering issue that was the topic of a panel discussion March 11 at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
“My grandmother lives on about $2,000 a month. That’s a huge hit,” said Carolyn Bourdeaux, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that advocates for long-term fiscal responsibility.
The national debt was a topic of discussion at a forum March 11 held at the University of New Hampshire. Forum participants included, from left, Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center; Dennis Lockhart, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Carolyn Bourdeaux, executive director of the Concord Coalition; and moderator Laura Knoy, director of community engagement at the Rudman Center at the UNH-Franklin Pierce School of Law. (Paul Briand photo)
“There are other things that suggest that the event horizon, where we might really hit a serious problem, is drawing much closer to us, certainly closer than is comfortable,” she added.
Boudreaux, who served as a Democratic member of Congress from Georgia from 2021-22, was joined on the panel by Dennis Lockhart, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center.
The forum was moderated by Laura Knoy, former New Hampshire Public Radio host and current director of community engagement at the Rudman Center at the UNH-Franklin Pierce School of Law. The event, which drew about 20 people to Huddleston Hall at UNH/Durham and was also live-streamed to the law school in Manchester, was sponsored by the Concord Coalition, the Rudman Center, and the Carsey School at UNH/Durham.
The national debt stands at about $39 trillion.
In simple terms, the national debt is the total accumulated money the federal government has borrowed to keep programs funded but has not yet repaid. It is financed by selling securities like Treasury bonds to investors, both domestic and foreign.
The last time the national debt was zero was in 1835, when President Andrew Jackson, a Democrat, announced on Jan. 8 of that year that he had taken what was a $58 million debt when he took over as president in 1829 down to nothing.
Republican President Donald Trump’s much-touted One Great Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is projected to increase the national debt by approximately by about $4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, including direct deficit increases of $3.7 trillion and over $700 billion in interest payments.
The political trope has always been that Republicans care about limited taxation and limiting the debt, while Democrats aren’t afraid to tax to pay for needed programs.
The OBBB provides a wide range of tax cuts across certain income groups and businesses, but, according to forum participants, does nothing to address the national debt. “The Republicans do care a lot about it,” said Boudreaux of the debt, “but they love tax cuts more generally.”
According to Smith, the debt crisis is not new. Federal commissions to study and make recommendations on how to address it have come and gone over the years: the Greenspan Commission in 1981, the National Economic Commission in 1987, the Simpson-Bowles Commission in 2010, and others.
“That can has been kicked down the road now for decades,” Smith said. “The fear that I have is the numbers have gotten so big that nobody can even comprehend how to deal with numbers that are that big, so we ignore them.”
Indeed, the polling by the survey center he directs shows the national debt as barely a blip on voters’ radar.
“If you ask an open-ended question to people: What is the most important problem facing the United States today, any guess of what the percentage are that say that the deficit is the most of the debt is the most important problem? Less than 2 percent,” Smith said.
“That is one of the reasons, I think, that we see the irresponsible nature of this taking place is because our representatives in Washington don’t see a public that is upset about this and wants to do something about it, because, frankly, to do something about it, it’s going to be painful politically for people,” Smith added.
A contributing factor to the complexity of the issue is demographics, according to Lockhart.
“I think my generation, the boomer generation, is leaving a complete mess for the generations that follow, and in all likelihood, leaving a less robust economic picture to live in,” Lockhart said.
He noted that the baby boomers represent a large percentage of the population that is not being replaced in equal numbers by the generations that have followed. Fewer workers, through their payroll taxes, are paying for the boomers’ Social Security, and it’s not sustainable.
There are basically three ways to rein in the debt: more revenue (through taxes), decreasing spending in the entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid), cutting discretionary spending (military, social programs), and fostering greater economic vitality.
But that takes political will, and Smith questioned whether the current political and cultural polarity is capable of producing it.
“I’m not optimistic about what’s going to happen anytime soon, because we are at an impasse, and I’m afraid that it’s going to take a significant crisis like 2032 to really knock some heads together,” Smith said.
He cited the historic example of the French Revolution, which occurred 1789–1799 in part because of the monarchy’s massive debt and the economic divide and social inequities that it created.
“When a country runs out of money, or when their currency is debased by a significant amount, it’s very bad economically, but it becomes very bad socially,” Smith said. “When people lose that much money and their standard of living declines significantly, political unrest happens.”
Lockhart suggested revenue generation through a financial transaction tax. The FTT is levied at small percentages on specific financial transactions, such as buying or selling stocks, bonds and derivatives.
“You’re dealing with small numbers, really small numbers, over a very vast amount of transactions, and many people will simply not notice. That makes it politically a little bit easier to swallow,” Lockhart said.
The National Taxpayers Union said on Feb. 4 that its polling shows Americans are tying the affordability crisis to the growing national debt.
The nonpartisan group’s nationwide survey of registered voters shows 89% believe the U.S. is facing an affordability crisis, while 88% say the $37 trillion national debt will eventually have a real impact on them and their families.
“Americans understand that the federal government’s overspending has consequences, and families are paying the price,” Pete Sepp, president of National Taxpayers Union, said in a statement. “Voters want leaders to rein in spending before the national debt and inflation do even more damage to household budgets.”
The Concord Coalition was founded in 1992 by former U.S. Sens. Paul Tsongas, a Democrat from Massachusetts, and Warren Rudman, New Hampshire Republican, dedicated to educating the public about the dangers of excessive federal debt and promoting long-term fiscal responsibility.
The Rudman Center is named for Warren Rudman.
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