Clouds in the crystal ball for the 2026 economy

Entering 2025, the topline numbers for the New Hampshire economy were relatively strong. Job growth was slower than during the prior three years, as the relatively rapid rebound in the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic waned, but employers continued to report hiring more people overall. There were 5,700 more filled jobs in 2024 than in 2023, which was a 0.8% increase. That boost was larger than the average growth of about 3,500 jobs (0.6%) annually so far this century in New Hampshire.

However, many households still struggled through 2024. The average hourly wage in New Hampshire fell slightly behind overall inflation faced by consumers, limiting purchasing power. Core necessities, such as housing, health care, child care and food, had recently experienced price jumps relative to many other goods and services, and costs continued to climb.

As 2025 unfolded, the data showed other warning signs for the state’s economy as well. The average number of jobs added in New Hampshire during the first nine months of 2025 totaled about 4,400, or 0.6% higher than the 2024 figures.

That’s not a bad growth rate, but the detailed monthly estimates tell a different story. Relatively strong job growth in late 2024 led to a peak estimate of 711,600 jobs based in New Hampshire during December 2024, but no month in the subsequent 11 has matched that estimate; by November 2025, there were about 706,100 jobs reported in the state. That suggested that job growth stalled in 2025, and employment declined overall.

Data from the last quarter of the year, delayed by the federal shutdown, will finish arriving sometime this month and provide more insights, clearing away some of the clouds in the economic crystal ball. But the pause in hiring in 2025 was likely spurred by uncertainty from changing international trade and tariff policies as well as heightened geopolitical risks.

Will 2026 bring more certainty, and with it a burst of investments delayed from 2025? Will inflation, which persisted through 2025 at levels from 2024, subside or grow worse? Many of those outcomes will depend on whether international policy uncertainty declines. The fundamentals of household economic well-being may not change much between 2025 and 2026, but the health of the macroeconomy will likely hinge on whether businesses feel the risks of expanding their operations have diminished sufficiently to make new investments in their employees and communities.

Phil Sletten is research director for the NH Fiscal Policy Institute. The NHFPI Policy Memo is a partnership of the NH Fiscal Policy Institute and NH Business Review.