2023 stats paint stark picture of NH real estate affordability

An analysis of year-end NHAR statistics details trends surrounding difficulty buying residential property in the Granite State

The median price of a single-family home in New Hampshire was $283,000 in 2018. Five years later, in 2023, the price rose to $470,000.

That’s a 66% increase.

An analysis of year-end New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR) statistics shows the trends that underscore just how difficult it is to buy residential property in the Granite State.

Here’s what the stats show: Since 2018, through the period of the pandemic, and with 2023 just finished, the number of residential real estate sales has declined, the supply has diminished, the prices have risen, and the affordability has become more difficult.

And 2023 was a record-year when it comes to certain statistics in terms of price and affordability.

Price-wise, the $470,000 median for a single-family family home is at an all-time high. The $380,000 for a residential condominium/townhouse is also an all-time high.

And affording those properties? That’s at an all-time low.

The affordability index is a measure of an average person’s ability to purchase a house in a particular region, based on housing prices and income. A value of 100 means a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index of less than 100 means the property in a particular area is more difficult to afford.

The affordability index for a single-family in New Hampshire for 2023 was 65. That compares to 129 in 2018. The index for a condo was 76 versus 179 in 2018.

For context, according to the NHAR, the Affordability Index for residential housing in the state has been as high as 220, which occurred in February 2012.

Another notable statistic is the months of supply — in other words, how many months it would take for all the current homes for sale on the market to sell, given a monthly sales volume. Four to five months of supply is average, according to Redfin.

For a single family, New Hampshire finished 2018 with a supply of 3.1 months. It finished 2023 with 1.4 months. Its historic low occurred in 2020 with 1.0.

For a condo, the end of 2018 saw a month of supply at 2.1, dipping to 1.6 in 2023. It bottomed out at 0.7 in 2021.

“It’s the historically low inventory that continues to push pricing to record levels,” said NHAR President Joanie McIntire, a broker at Coldwell Banker J. Hampe Associates in Concord. “This is just another month of data that points to a lack of housing units as the culprit, and we hope that policymakers are taking note.”

Affordability struggles aren’t unique to New Hampshire. ATTOM, a curator of land, property and real estate data, has released its fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Report showing that median-priced, single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to historical averages.

“The bad news is that owning a home remains more of a financial stretch than it’s been for many years,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “The annual Fall slowdown in the housing market clearly has helped stem the tide working against potential purchasers. Whether that’s just a temporary thing tied to seasonal market patterns is something we won’t know until next year, especially given recent signs that interest rates are coming down. But for now, there is some break into the growing financial stress for house hunters.”

Among New Hampshire’s 10 counties, Rockingham continues to lead the way as the most expensive area to buy a house.

In its December report, NHAR noted the median price for a single-family there was $550,000. It was also the most expensive place for a condo at $508,500. Prices in Rockingham County are fueled largely by what happens in the Seacoast area, and the Seacoast Board of Realtors reported the fewest number of homes sales (38) in December since 2010.

For all of 2023, it said it recorded 650 house transactions, off 25.1% from 2022, while the 12-month median sale price of $740,000 is up 8% from 2022.

For 2023 on the Seacoast, condominium sales were off 13.4% on 548 transactions, while the median sale price was $567,850, an increase of 9.2%.

“Despite all the pressures on the December market, we continue to see strong consumer interest in Seacoast real estate,” said new Seacoast Board of Realtors President Lynn Lagasse, a broker at Keller Williams Coastal Realty in Portsmouth. “The prospect of potential interest rate cuts can only help the spring market down the road.”

The Seacoast Board of Realtors draws its data from the sample communities of Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, Hampton Falls, New Castle, Newfields, Newington, North Hampton, Newmarket, Portsmouth, Rye, Seabrook and Stratham.

Every year, United Van Lines releases a migration study based on where it moved people to and from.

The migration into New Hampshire has increased steadily since the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. In 2020, 51.8% of moves involving New Hampshire were inbound, while 48.2% were outbound. Inbound moves grew to 53.6% in 2021, to 56.6% in 2022, and then backed off a bit to 54.1% in 2023.

But New Hampshire’s in-migration hasn’t ranked among the top 10 over the years. The top state in the last few years has been Vermont. Its inbound moves were 65.5% in 2023.